The Scout Mindset - Calibration

Online tool for Julia Galef's The Scout Mindset Calibration which you can find at https://juliagalef.com/calibration

Try it now: [here](https://mihaeu.github.io/scout-mindset-calibration/)

Round 1: Are these animal facts true or false?

1. The elephant is the world’s largest mammal.

Answer

true false

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

False. The blue whale, not the elephant, is the largest mammal.

2. Sea otters sometimes hold hands while they sleep.

Answer

true false

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

True.

3. Centipedes have more legs than any other animal.

Answer

true false

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

The millipede is the animal with the most legs— some have as many as 750 legs. The centipede can have up to 354 legs.

4. Mammals and dinosaurs coexisted.

Answer

true false

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

True. The first mammals appeared roughly 200 million years ago. Dinosaurs went extinct roughly 65 million years ago.

5. Bears can’t climb trees.

Answer

true false

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

False.

6. Camels store water in their humps.

Answer

true false

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

False. Camels store fat, not water, in their humps.

7. Flamingos are pink because they eat shrimp.

Answer

true false

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

True.

8. The giant panda eats mostly bamboo.

Answer

true false

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

True. A giant panda’s diet is almost entirely bamboo.

9. The platypus is the only mammal that lays eggs.

Answer

true false

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

False. The platypus is one of two mammals that lay eggs. The other is the echidna.

10. A mule is a cross between a male donkey and a female horse.

Answer

true false

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

True.

Round 2: Which historical figure was born first?

11. Julius Caesar or Confucius?

Answer

Julius Caesar Confucius

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

Confucius (551 BC) was born before Julius Caesar (100 BC).

12. Fidel Castro or Mahatma Gandhi?

Answer

Fidel Castro Mahatma Gandhi

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

Mahatma Gandhi (1869) was born before Fidel Castro (1926).

13. Nelson Mandela or Anne Frank?

Answer

Nelson Mandela Anne Frank

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

Nelson Mandela (1918) was born before Anne Frank (1929).

14. Cleopatra or Muhammad?

Answer

Cleopatra Muhammad

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

Cleopatra (69 BC) was born before Muhammad (circa 570).

15. William Shakespeare or Joan of Arc?

Answer

William Shakespeare Joan of Arc

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

Joan of Arc (circa 1412) was born before William Shakespeare (1564).

16. George Washington or Sun Tzu?

Answer

George Washington Sun Tzu

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

Sun Tzu (544 BC) was born before George Washington (1732).

17. Genghis Khan or Leonardo da Vinci?

Answer

Genghis Khan Leonardo da Vinci

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

Genghis Khan (circa 1160) was born before Leonardo da Vinci (1452).

18. Queen Victoria or Karl Marx?

Answer

Queen Victoria Karl Marx

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

Karl Marx (1818) was born before Queen Victoria (1819).

19. Saddam Hussein or Marilyn Monroe?

Answer

Saddam Hussein Marilyn Monroe

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

Marilyn Monroe (1926) was born before Saddam Hussein (1937).

20. Albert Einstein or Mao Zedong?

Answer

Albert Einstein Mao Zedong

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

Albert Einstein (1879) was born before Mao Zedong (1893).

Round 3: Which country had more people in 2019?

21. Germany or France?

Answer

Germany France

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

Germany (84 million) has more people than France (65 million).

22. Japan or South Korea?

Answer

Japan South

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

Japan (127 million) has more people than South Korea (51 million).

23. Brazil or Argentina?

Answer

Brazil Argentina

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

Brazil (211 million) has more people than Argentina (45 million).

24. Egypt or Botswana?

Answer

Egypt Botswana

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

Egypt (100 million) has more people than Botswana (2 million).

25. Mexico or Guatemala?

Answer

Mexico Guatemala

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

Mexico (128 million) has more people than Guatemala (18 million).

26. Panama or Belize?

Answer

Panama Belize

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

Panama (4 million) has more people than Belize (390,000).

27. Jamaica or Haiti?

Answer

Jamaica Haiti

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

Haiti (11 million) has more people than Jamaica (3 million).

28. Greece or Norway?

Answer

Greece Norway

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

Greece (10 million) has more people than Norway (5 million).

29. China or India?

Answer

China India

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

China (1.43 billion) has more people than India (1.37 billion).

30. Iraq or Iran?

Answer

Iraq Iran

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

Iran (83 million) has more people than Iraq (39 million).

Round 4: Are these science facts true or false?

31. Mars has one moon, just like Earth.

Answer

true false

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

False. Mars has two moons, Phobos and Deimos.

32. Scurvy is caused by a deficit of vitamin C.

Answer

true false

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

True.

33. Brass is made from iron and copper.

Answer

true false

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

False. Brass is made of zinc and copper, not iron and copper.

34. One tablespoon of oil has more calories than one tablespoon of butter.

Answer

true false

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

True. One tablespoon of oil has roughly 120 calories, while one tablespoon of butter can contain up to 110 calories.

35. Helium is the lightest element.

Answer

true false

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

False. The lightest element is hydrogen, not helium.

36. The common cold is caused by bacteria.

Answer

true false

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

False. The common cold is caused by viruses, not bacteria.

37. The deepest place on Earth is in the Pacific Ocean.

Answer

true false

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

True.

38. Seasons are caused by the earth orbiting the sun in an elliptical path.

Answer

true false

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

False. Seasons are caused by the tilt of the earth’s axis.

39. Jupiter is the largest planet in our solar system.

Answer

true false

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

True.

40. The atoms in a solid are more densely packed than the atoms in a gas.

Answer

true false

Confidence

55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

True.

Result

	Column A: Number of times you were right	Column B: Number of times you were wrong	% of the time you’re right at this confidence level = A / (A + B)
55% sure	0	0	?
65% sure	0	0	?
75% sure	0	0	?
85% sure	0	0	?
95% sure	0	0	?

Being perfectly calibrated would mean that your “50% sure” claims are in fact correct 50 percent of the time, your “60% sure” claims are correct 60 percent of the time, your “70% sure” claims are correct 70 percent of the time, and so on. Perfect calibration is an abstract ideal, not something that’s possible to achieve in reality. Still, it’s a useful benchmark against which to compare yourself.

- Julia Galef